Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 124,449
2 South Dakota 116,993
3 Utah 95,909
4 Rhode Island 94,969
5 Wisconsin 94,795
6 Tennessee 94,503
7 Iowa 94,379
8 Nebraska 91,413
9 Arizona 86,247
10 Kansas 85,957
11 Arkansas 84,943
12 Oklahoma 84,723
13 Indiana 84,720
14 Idaho 84,248
15 Alabama 82,395
16 Wyoming 81,890
17 Illinois 81,791
18 Nevada 81,321
19 Montana 81,174
20 Mississippi 80,744
21 Minnesota 77,597
22 New Mexico 74,916
23 Louisiana 74,908
24 Missouri 74,052
25 California 70,106
26 Georgia 69,704
27 South Carolina 69,464
28 Florida 69,307
29 Kentucky 69,256
30 Texas 68,686
31 Alaska 68,500
32 Delaware 67,600
33 Ohio 67,152
34 New Jersey 66,443
35 Massachusetts 63,408
36 Colorado 63,349
37 North Carolina 60,353
38 Connecticut 59,843
39 New York 59,116
40 Pennsylvania 57,176
41 West Virginia 57,072
42 Michigan 56,658
43 Maryland 51,255
44 Virginia 47,259
45 District of Columbia 45,331
46 New Hampshire 38,469
47 Washington 36,910
48 Puerto Rico 36,660
49 Oregon 30,017
50 Maine 22,028
51 Hawaii 16,570
52 Vermont 14,548

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Oklahoma 1,235
2 Arizona 1,173
3 California 1,098
4 Rhode Island 941
5 North Carolina 883
6 South Carolina 872
7 Tennessee 859
8 Georgia 856
9 Massachusetts 837
10 New York 828
11 Arkansas 826
12 West Virginia 815
13 Delaware 795
14 Mississippi 744
15 Kentucky 741
16 Indiana 729
17 New Jersey 690
18 Nevada 689
19 Connecticut 688
20 Utah 662
21 Alabama 660
22 Texas 638
23 Ohio 637
24 Florida 610
25 Virginia 604
26 Pennsylvania 591
27 New Mexico 577
28 Kansas 572
29 Maryland 556
30 New Hampshire 528
31 Missouri 498
32 Louisiana 487
33 Illinois 432
34 Wyoming 430
35 Colorado 425
36 Wisconsin 419
37 District of Columbia 418
38 Idaho 369
39 Washington 347
40 South Dakota 346
41 Nebraska 343
42 Alaska 339
43 Montana 339
44 Minnesota 331
45 Iowa 318
46 Maine 298
47 Oregon 297
48 Michigan 272
49 Vermont 245
50 North Dakota 171
51 Puerto Rico 146
52 Hawaii 133

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,244
2 New York 2,025
3 Massachusetts 1,915
4 Rhode Island 1,837
5 Connecticut 1,799
6 South Dakota 1,791
7 North Dakota 1,784
8 Mississippi 1,742
9 Louisiana 1,703
10 Illinois 1,528
11 Michigan 1,420
12 Pennsylvania 1,395
13 Arizona 1,394
14 Arkansas 1,352
15 Indiana 1,339
16 New Mexico 1,319
17 Iowa 1,311
18 District of Columbia 1,163
19 Tennessee 1,141
20 Nevada 1,137
21 South Carolina 1,131
22 Kansas 1,117
23 Alabama 1,090
24 Florida 1,074
25 Texas 1,059
26 Georgia 1,046
27 Maryland 1,042
28 Missouri 1,032
29 Minnesota 1,024
30 Delaware 1,012
31 Montana 988
32 Wisconsin 957
33 Nebraska 942
34 Colorado 918
35 West Virginia 889
36 Idaho 868
37 Wyoming 844
38 Ohio 830
39 California 768
40 North Carolina 727
41 Kentucky 726
42 Oklahoma 701
43 New Hampshire 639
44 Virginia 631
45 Puerto Rico 514
46 Washington 498
47 Utah 436
48 Oregon 385
49 Maine 325
50 Alaska 293
51 Vermont 250
52 Hawaii 216

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arkansas 12
2 Kansas 12
3 Tennessee 12
4 Pennsylvania 11
5 Alabama 10
6 Massachusetts 10
7 Nevada 10
8 South Dakota 10
9 California 9
10 Delaware 9
11 Michigan 9
12 Mississippi 9
13 New York 9
14 Rhode Island 9
15 Arizona 8
16 Connecticut 8
17 New Mexico 8
18 North Carolina 8
19 South Carolina 8
20 Texas 7
21 West Virginia 7
22 Florida 6
23 Illinois 6
24 Indiana 6
25 Louisiana 6
26 New Jersey 6
27 Oklahoma 6
28 District of Columbia 5
29 Minnesota 5
30 New Hampshire 5
31 Puerto Rico 5
32 Colorado 4
33 Georgia 4
34 Idaho 4
35 Maryland 4
36 Nebraska 4
37 Ohio 4
38 Kentucky 3
39 Missouri 3
40 Oregon 3
41 Virginia 3
42 Maine 2
43 Montana 2
44 Wisconsin 2
45 Hawaii 1
46 Iowa 1
47 Utah 1
48 Washington 1
49 Alaska 0
50 North Dakota 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 278,007 1 99
Dewey South Dakota 227,427 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 223,280 3 99
Norton Kansas 222,160 4 99
Bent Colorado 220,907 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 110,543 260 91
Richland South Carolina 71,125 1591 49
Orange California 63,856 1950 37
York South Carolina 63,745 1959 37
Pierce Washington 34,021 2857 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Grant Nebraska 6,421 4 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 905 1838 41
Richland South Carolina 854 1913 39
York South Carolina 694 2188 30
Orange California 668 2222 29
Pierce Washington 428 2608 16

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons